Illustration: Chen Xia/GT

Three interesting things happened in the past two days regarding the South China Sea issue. First, the US and the Philippines conducted joint exercises in the South China Sea. Second, Chinese and US representatives clashed over the South China Sea issue at the UN. Third, a video about the South China Sea issue released by the US Embassy in Singapore on social media triggered a sharp response from the Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs. These events - a joint military exercise, a fiery UN debate, and a misfired social media campaign - offer a window into a region caught in the undertow of competing ambitions. What emerges is a tale of American urgency, Chinese resilience, and a Southeast Asia straining to chart its own course amid the storm.

The military currents run deep, with every maneuver becoming a calculated ripple across the region's surface. When the US and the Philippines launched joint exercises in the South China Sea, it was more than a show of hardware - it was a bold statement. Naval ships sliced through disputed waters, the P-8A Poseidon patrolled the skies, and, most strikingly, Coast Guard vessels joined the fray. This last detail is no footnote; it muddies the waters between law enforcement and warfare, echoing the "gray zone" tactics where maritime militia and coast guard ships try to assert control without sparking outright conflict. For the US, it's a strategic pivot - another provocative step against Beijing while deepening ties with Manila. 

Yet, this flexing of muscle carries an edge of peril. China, ever vigilant, is unlikely to let such provocations pass unanswered. Therefore, the US and the Philippines' provocative actions actually raised the specter of a cycle of escalation that could spiral beyond intent, which makes the South China Sea less like a waterway and more like a tinderbox, where each development tests the limits of restraint.

Diplomacy is a different battlefield, where words cut as sharply as steel. At the UN Security Council, Chinese and US representatives clashed with a ferocity that belied the polished rhetoric. Dorothy Shea, US representative at the UN Security Council, wielded the 2016 arbitral ruling like a spear, branding China's actions "dangerous and unlawful," while pledging solidarity with the Philippines. Geng Shuang, charge d'affaires of China's permanent mission to the UN, responded with equal force, exposing the US' attempt to cloak its muscle-flexing in the guise of freedom of navigation. This wasn't a debate, but a duel for legitimacy on the international stage. The US sought to paint China as a rogue state trampling international norms, while China reveals the US' words and deeds as a meddling outsider disrupting harmony. 

Then there's the public opinion front, where the war for minds plays out in bytes and pixels. The US Embassy in Singapore fired a salvo - a social media video likening China's territorial claims to a neighbor hogging public space. It was a sly jab, meant to dent China's image, but it landed with a thud. The Chinese side decried it as "deliberate distortion," and Singapore's Ministry of Foreign Affairs delivered a stinging rebuke, rejecting efforts to stir domestic sentiment over foreign disputes. This misstep laid bare the risks of the US' digital gambit. Aiming to erode China's goodwill, the US instead ruffled a key regional player committed to staying neutral. It's a vivid reminder that Southeast Asian nations are not mere audiences to be swayed, but major players guarding their autonomy.

These threads - military, diplomatic and public opinion - weave a tapestry of US strategy that is as audacious as it is precarious. Washington is scrambling to shore up its dominant position that feels increasingly shaky. The joint exercises were aimed at projecting strength, but they can't overshadow China's resolve and growing capability to safeguard its rights and interests. The UN volleys may have rallied some allies, but they ring hollow against the US' own spotty record on the rules it touts. And the social media stunts may have grabbed eyes, but they risk pushing away the very partners the US wants to draw. It's a high-wire act driven by a gnawing truth: the South China Sea is slipping from the US' self-perceived dominance, and no amount of posturing can fully reclaim it.

This reality cuts deeper when you peel back the layers of the US' intent. Far from craving calm, Washington seems to thrive on choppy waters. But this is a delusion unraveling fast. China's rise isn't a passing squall; it's a new weather pattern, one where Beijing's capacity to shield its legitimate rights and interests and maintain stability in the region only grows. The US may dominate the news cycle for now, but it's China shaping the long game - its ports, its ships, and its trade ties knitting a web the US can't unpick.

The US' approach also doesn't win it any friends. By nudging the Philippines into its corner, the US treads on delicate ground, ignoring the fault lines within a nation torn between economic ties to China and security pacts with the West. Manila is not a blank slate - its people weigh Beijing's largesse against Washington's promises, and US pressure could widen those cracks. Zoom out, and the damage spreads: ASEAN strains under the weight of American coaxing. When the US prods nations to pick sides, it frays a bloc built on consensus. Singapore's sharp response to the US' video saga signals a broader unease - this isn't just clumsy diplomacy; it is a corrosive force, and it is testing the resolve of states that cherish their autonomy.

The US might want to turn the South China Sea into a bargaining chip in wider wars over trade or tech, but it is a tired play. China has seen such tactics before. The Philippines' recent midterms may fuel hawkish dreams in Manila and Washington, but Beijing won't flinch - any push will hit a wall, a reminder that Asia's old deference to the US' edicts has faded.

Yet the sharpest critique of America's stance isn't its missteps - it is in fact its hypocrisy, a flaw that undercuts its every move. The US accuses China of dismissing the 2016 ruling, yet it has never signed the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the legal spine it demands others honor. It's a glaring double standard from the US: international law is sacred when it suits, disposable when it doesn't. This selective piety makes a mockery of America's self-proclaimed moral swagger, turning its calls for order into a hollow chorus. Beyond these waters, the pattern repeats - on climate pacts or deep-sea mining, the US opts for self-interest over shared responsibility, ducking commitments it expects others to keep. Its policy swings - engagement one day, retreat the next, and sowing chaos in a world craving stability. Once a dominant force, America now falters, its halo dimmed by inconsistency and naked self-regard. The global audience sees through the rhetoric.

The South China Sea, then, is more than a contested patch of blue - it is a mirror reflecting Asia-Pacific's future. America's flurry of maneuvers - ships, speeches, tweets - smacks of a superpower clinging to a crown that's slipping. The US strategy, built on division and draped in duplicity, doesn't just falter - it erodes the very order it claims to champion.

For the nations of Southeast Asia, trapped in this vortex, salvation lies not in picking teams but in unity. The sea should bind, not break - a lifeline for mutual gain, not a stage for major-country competition. As the gales of change howl, it is grit and solidarity that will anchor the region. The tempest rages, but it's in the stillness after that its destiny will take shape - a test not just of power, but of principle and purpose.

The author is the director of the Center for International and Regional Studies, National Institute for South China Sea Studies. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn