An aerial view of Dalian Port, Northeast China's Liaoning Province. Photo: VCG

Several major financial institutions have recently issued more positive projections for China's economy, both for the second half and the full year, citing its resilience so far in 2025, bolstered by pro-growth policies and easing trade tensions with the US following the Geneva talks.

These revised outlooks come ahead of China's official release of first-half economic data on Tuesday, which is drawing close attention from global markets as they assess the trajectory of the world's second-largest economy.

Chinese experts expect the overall figures to remain solid, laying a foundation for achieving the full-year growth target. At the same time, to meet the growth target of around 5 percent for the year, additional strong policy support is still expected to be rolled out, to better cope with lingering external uncertainties.

Amid a rapidly changing international landscape, the global economy may face increasing downward pressure. At the same time, China's economy continues to demonstrate resilience, a report HSBC shared with Global Times showed.

China's GDP growth for the first half of 2025 is estimated to have exceeded 5 percent year-on-year, the HSBC report projected. In the second half, while export growth may face some pressure as the short-term boost from front-loaded shipments fades, continued macro policy support is expected to provide solid backing for domestic demand, the report said.

The Chinese economy maintained decent growth in the first half, on the back of export front-loading, the consumption goods trade-in program, high single-digit growth of infrastructure and manufacturing fixed-asset investment, J.P. Morgan said in a recent report published on its official website.

The better-than-expected export momentum is supported by strong front-loading and transshipment, on the back of 90-day reciprocal tariff suspensions for most countries (excluding China, effective from April 9) and a separate 90-day reciprocal tariff suspension for China (effective from May 12), the report said.

J.P. Morgan's report suggested that "with fiscal policy proving effective in the first half and with GDP growth remaining above 5 percent, we expect that fiscal support will focus on existing policy deployments in the third quarter rather than exploring new initiatives."

Previously, J.P. Morgan revised China's GDP growth forecast to 4.8 percent year-on-year from 4.1 percent. Zhu Haibin, chief China economist at J.P. Morgan, cited pro-growth measures as major contributors to sound economic growth amid trade headwinds.

Goldman Sachs released a research report on May 13, in which it raised its forecast for China's GDP growth in 2025 by 0.6 percentage points, elevating it from 4 percent to 4.6 percent.

Commenting on the positive projections for China's economic growth, Chinese experts attributed them to effective policy measures, which they said are laying a solid foundation for achieving the full-year growth target.

"China's economic performance so far this year shows a clear rebound and upward trend compared with recent years. A key factor behind this improvement is the significant strengthening of macroeconomic policy measures," Xi Junyang, a professor at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, told the Global Times on Sunday, giving examples of the easing monetary policy, with multiple cuts to the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. Notably, the government has also increased fiscal spending, the expert said.

At the same time, to boost consumption, the government has introduced measures such as subsidies for trade-ins and the distribution of consumption vouchers, further driving domestic demand, Xi Junyang said, adding that overall, the government's efforts to stimulate domestic demand through macro-level policies have been markedly intensified this year.

These policies already showed positive results in the economic data for June. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's consumer price index rose by 0.1 percent year-on-year in June, reversing four months of declines.

The driving force behind China's economic growth is not a single factor, but the result of coordinated policy efforts across multiple fronts, Hu Qimu, deputy secretary-general of the Forum 50 for Digital-Real Economies Integration, told the Global Times on Sunday.

In response to external shocks, China has implemented a series of measures. The global wave of trade tensions has placed considerable pressure on external demand, and given the high degree of internationalization in China's industrial chains, the contraction in external demand has also weighed on market expectations, Hu said.

However, Hu noted that against the backdrop of a sluggish global economy, China's demonstrated resilience — its ability to withstand risks and shocks, along with the robustness of its industrial system — has been a key reason why international financial institutions have raised their forecasts for the Chinese economy. "As capital seeks relatively safe destinations amid rising global risks, China has naturally become a focal point of attention," the expert further noted.

Externally, there is still room for dialogue and negotiation between China and the US, Hu said, adding that the US economy remains reliant on Chinese exports, which may lead it to exercise greater restraint in the actual implementation of tariff policies on Chinese goods. 

At the same time, China's export market is undergoing structural changes, including diversifying trading partners. These factors indicate that while external pressures persist, their overall impact on China's economic development remains manageable, experts said.