A worker is seen at a copper pipe workshop of Zhejiang Hailiang Limited in Diankou Town of Zhuji, east China's Zhejiang Province, April 7, 2025. (Xinhua/Zheng Huansong)

US President Donald Trump issued a blitz of tariff announcements ranging from changes to previously threatened levies on imports of copper, goods from Brazil and South Korea, to ending an exemption from tariffs for small-value shipments from overseas, Reuters reported on Wednesday.

Chinese experts analyzed that this "escalation of protectionism" will directly impact neighboring countries like Mexico and Canada and may also backfire on high-copper-consumption industries in the US., such as electric vehicles and data centers.

Industry insiders noted that, although China is the world's largest producer of copper products, due to trade structure factors, the impact of the copper tariffs on China will be limited. However, the latest US move could disrupt the global copper supply chain and price system, indirectly affecting the cost structure of Chinese copper processing companies.

Mexico, Canada likely to bear the brunt

Copper is a key component in various products, including electronics, machinery, and automobiles. According to media reports, half of the US' annual copper demand relies on imports. 

Countries set to be most affected by any new US copper tariff would be Chile, Canada and Mexico, which were the top suppliers to the US of refined copper, copper alloys and copper products in 2024, reported aljazeera.com, citing data from US Census Bureau data.

However, due to insufficient domestic refining capacity in the US refined copper—a critical raw material for manufacturing—is exempt from those tariffs. The UK's Financial Times noted that while the US produces some copper ore, it does not have enough smelting capacity to refine all the material that it consumes. It would be very difficult to quickly replace the imported refined metal with domestic production because smelters typically take several years to build. 

Some foreign media analyses suggest that since refined copper is exempt, producers like Chile and Peru will not be significantly affected and may even benefit.

Wang Wei, a senior copper researcher at Galaxy Futures, told the Global Times that if tariffs were broadly applied to copper, Chile and Canada would be the most impacted. However, if the tariffs target copper semi-finished products, Chile—which accounts for 70 percent of US' refined copper imports—would see a much smaller impact. Meanwhile, Canada exported 154,000 tons of refined copper (16.6 percent of US imports) and 150,000 tons of copper products to the US last year. "Thus, the US tariff policy will clearly affect Canada," Wang said.

Another anonymous industry source told the Global Times that Mexico would be more affected since refined copper is exempt. The expert cited data showing that Mexico's copper product exports to the US account for 60 percent of its total copper product exports, with copper wire (77.6 percent of US imports) and copper pipes (21 percent of US imports) being the main categories.

"The US tariffs explicitly cover semi-finished copper products, directly impacting processing industry clusters along Mexico's northern border," the anonymous expert said. For example, 80 percent of the production capacity of copper wire processing plants in Monterrey, Mexico, relies on exports to the US After the tariffs take effect, these companies face two choices: either absorb the 50 percent tariff, which would slash profit margins from 8 percent to -3 percent, or invest $200 million to upgrade equipment to produce higher-value automotive wiring harnesses—a process that would take at least 18 months.

How will "copper tariffs" affect China?

China is the world's largest producer of copper products, ranking first globally in refined copper and copper processing material output in 2024. To what extent will China be affected by the US steep tariffs?

The Cato Institute, a US think tank, recently published an analysis arguing that claims the tariffs target China's dominance in global copper smelting and refining are questionable. 

Although China certainly accounted for a large share (about 45 percent) of global copper refinery production in 2024, and US imports of refined copper come mainly from longstanding trusted trading partners. In 2024, China accounted for less than 1 percent of total US imports. Even in the case of US imports of semi-finished articles made of refined copper, China only accounted for 1 percent of the total, the institute said. 

"The impact on China is minimal," Wang said. He noted that in 2024, the US imported 50,000 tons of copper pipe fittings, mainly from China, Germany, Vietnam, and others, with about 14,000 tons coming from China—the only significant copper product exported to the US. Otherwise, China exports few other copper products to the US.

However, Wang added that the new US tariff policy could disrupt copper market supply and demand, potentially affecting global copper prices and, in turn, the production costs and sales prices of Chinese companies.

Global copper trade map may alter

Multiple experts interviewed by Global Times and foreign media analyses suggest the US tariffs on imported copper products will have multi-faceted repercussions for the country itself.

Executives have raised concerns about the planned tariffs on the metal, and analysts have warned they will threaten key US industries from electric vehicles to data centers and defense, according to Financial Times. 

"Under protectionist policies, the US copper mining and smelting industries may receive some stimulus, but copper product tariffs will increase costs for copper-consuming sectors, stifling normal investment in high-copper-use industries and negatively affecting US consumers," Song Guoyou, a deputy director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University told the Global Times.

One of the core goals of the US copper tariffs is to reshore manufacturing—but is this achievable? Wang believes the decision to exempt copper ore and refined copper shows the US is shifting its industrial policy focus downstream to copper processing. In other words, the US aims to import strategic raw materials like refined copper, process them domestically, and re-export the products, forming an "import raw materials—domestic processing—export products" industrial path.

"This strategy may encourage overseas copper processors to invest more in the US, helping rebuild its domestic copper processing industry," Wang said. "But it also means the US is giving up on developing its own upstream refined copper sector."

The Cato Institute also said that but beyond the questionable nature of the alleged threat, there are strong reasons to doubt that tariffs offer a solution, even if one accepts the premise that expanded domestic refining and smelting capacity and a stronger overall copper industry are needed.

Instead of imposing fresh tariffs, the White House's energy would be better spent tackling domestic policy issues that inhibit the US copper industry from adding more capacity. As the Wall Street Journal points out, building and permitting a copper smelter in the United States can take more than five years. 

The anonymous expert told the Global Times that the deeper impact of the US tariffs will be accelerating the regionalization of global supply chains. He mentioned that Mexico plans to redirect about 20 percent of its copper product exports to Southeast Asia, while Chile has sought to establish a "copper-lithium resource exchange" mechanism with China in recent years. "These adjustments could permanently alter the flow of global copper trade," the expert said.